Lucky Numbers bets in South Africa: how fixed odds on a draw really work

What you are actually buying

A National Lottery ticket buys you a share of a prize pool. A Lucky Numbers bet does something different. You predict whether certain numbers will be drawn, and if they are, the bookmaker pays you at odds agreed when you placed the bet. The draw is only the event you bet on, just as a rugby match is the event behind a match bet.

The best-known draw used for these bets is UK 49s, which Lottery Guru describes as six main numbers from 1 to 49 plus a Bonus Ball. There are two draws a day, Lunchtime at 12:49 and Teatime at 17:49 UK time, run by a consortium of bookmakers through Satellite Information Services. You choose how many numbers to back, from one to five or more, and whether the Bonus Ball counts. Including the Bonus Ball makes a win more likely, so the odds offered are cut, by about a third on that guide’s figures.

Some South African operators also offer “lottery” events of their own. One Mpumalanga-licensed bookmaker’s terms describe these as fixed-odds betting events whose results come from an independently certified random number generator, with a paytable shown on each event. In both cases you are betting against the bookmaker’s price, not entering a lottery.

How the law classifies it

Two Acts meet here, and they pull in different directions.

• The National Gambling Act 7 of 2004 defines a contingency as “an event or occurrence of which the outcome is uncertain or unknown to any person until it happens”, and a fixed-odds bet as “a bet on one or more contingencies in which odds are agreed at the time the bet is placed”. Provincially licensed bookmakers take bets on contingencies, and several provincial regulators treat the outcome of a local or foreign lottery draw as one. Section 2 says the Act does not apply to an activity regulated under the Lotteries Act.
• The Lotteries Act 57 of 1997 makes it an offence in section 57(2)(g) to run any scheme that “directly or indirectly provides for betting, wagering, gambling or any other game of risk on any outcome of any lottery unless authorised by or under this Act or any other law”. Section 59 adds that running it from outside the Republic is no defence.

The argument turns on the last words of section 57(2)(g). Bookmakers say a provincial bookmaker’s licence is authorisation “under any other law”. The National Lotteries Commission (NLC) says betting on lottery outcomes undermines the National Lottery and the money it raises for good causes.

The maths: how much margin is in the price

Every fixed-odds price can be turned into an expected return: return = decimal odds × probability of winning. Whatever falls short of 100% is the bookmaker’s margin. For a straight bet on six main balls from 49, without the Bonus Ball, the chance that all your chosen numbers are drawn is:

• 1 number: 6/49, or 1 in 8.17
• 2 numbers: (6 × 5) ÷ (49 × 48) = 30/2,352, or 1 in 78.4
• 3 numbers: (6 × 5 × 4) ÷ (49 × 48 × 47) = 120/110,544, or 1 in 921.2
• 4 numbers: 360/5,085,024, or 1 in 14,125
• 5 numbers: 720/228,826,080, or 1 in 317,814

The table applies those probabilities to sample prices taken from the ranges Lottery Guru lists for UK straight bets. South African prices differ between operators and change over time, so use the formula on the odds you are actually offered.

The pattern is clear. The more numbers you pick, the bigger the headline payout and the bigger the share the bookmaker keeps. A five-number bet at 150,000/1 looks generous, but the true odds are about 317,813/1, so the price is less than half of what a fair bet would pay.

Worked example in rand

Say you put R10 on three numbers at 700/1. If all three are drawn, you get R10 × 701 = R7,010 back, including your stake. The chance of that is 1 in 921.2, so the expected value of the bet is R7,010 ÷ 921.2 = R7.61. On average you lose R2.39 of every R10 staked, which is the 23.9% margin in the table. Spread R10 a day over a year of draws and you would expect to stake R3,650 and get back about R2,778. That is a long-run average. Any single year can come out well above or below it.

The legal fight that is still running

The question has been in court for years. In 2021 the Mpumalanga High Court found that a bookmaker’s fixed-odds bets on lottery outcomes were unlawful under section 57(1)(a) and (b) of the Lotteries Act. The NLC said the matter had been in litigation since 2015, and the bookmaker said it would appeal, as Sunday World reported. A Chambers Gaming Law guide notes that the appeal is now before the Supreme Court of Appeal. That court invited interested parties to take part in 2023, and at the time of writing no judgment had been published. Meanwhile, the NLC’s latest annual report calls the rise of betting on National Lottery outcomes “a significant threat” and points to overlapping mandates between the NLC and the provincial boards.

Parliament has tried to settle it too. The National Gambling Amendment Bill (B27-2018), introduced on 21 August 2018, would have moved the regulation of bets on national lottery results, foreign lotteries and sports pools to the NLC. The National Council of Provinces rejected it, and in 2025 it was referred to a Mediation Committee. Check the bill’s page on parliament.gov.za for its current status, and see our note on the gambling bills before Parliament.

Before you place a Lucky Numbers bet

• Check that the bookmaker is licensed by a South African provincial board, and read its rules for the draw you are betting on: which balls count, what happens if a draw is void, and the maximum payout.
• Run the expected-return formula on the actual price. Bets on one or two numbers usually carry the smallest margin, and long shots the largest.
• Remember that past draws have no influence on future ones. No system of “hot” numbers changes the probabilities above.
• Compare it with other number games such as keno, which works on the same counting principles.

This is general information, not legal advice. If you need a ruling on your own position, ask an attorney or your provincial gambling board. You must be 18 or older to bet. If betting is costing you more than you can afford, call the South African Responsible Gambling Foundation free on 0800 006 008, 24 hours a day, or visit our responsible gambling page.